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Forum:2013 Pacific typhoon season
Future start Yep.--Isaac829 02:18, September 16, 2012 (UTC) Yep. A. Massive. Catty. 5. Typhoon. In. Typhoon. Land. I. Think. Will. Hit. Japan. In. August. 2013. Whilst. We. Are. Having. Humberto. And. Ingrid. Agreed. People. 00:10, November 11, 2012 (UTC) : JTWC Best Track for last year is out.Isaac829 20:54, April 26, 2013 (UTC) November Has begun, but aside from Krosa, WPac is quiet right now. However, there could be a few storms following up behind Krosa if the GFS forecast turns out to be correct. Ryan1000 00:24, November 1, 2013 (UTC) :The WPAC is going nuts. I will not be surprised if all those storms become typhoons. For November, I think the WPAC will produce 5''' tropical storms, '''5 severe tropical storms, 4''' typhoons, '''1 super typhoon, and an ACE of 51. AndrewTalk To Me 21:20, November 1, 2013 (UTC) ::My predictions: 3 tropical storms, 2 severe tropical storms, 2 typhoons, and 0 super typhoons. The WPac should quiet down a little from here on out. —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 01:53, November 2, 2013 (UTC) 30W.NONAME 98W.INVEST Behind Krosa, we have a new invest. It has a low chance of becoming tropical in the next 24 hours. AndrewTalk To Me 11:53, November 2, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Depression 30W (Wilma) And now this is 30W. This will probably become Tropical Storm Haiyan as it moves into the Philipines over the next day or two, causing some flooding rains. Hopefully it doesn't become the catastrophe Washi was in December 2011. Ryan1000 13:00, November 3, 2013 (UTC) : I'm not sure which one will become Haiyan first, 30W or 31W? The winner will get the name "Haiyan", while the loser gets the name "Podul". Anyway, I think this storm could bring lots of flooding to the Phillippines. —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 19:41, November 3, 2013 (UTC) : This will do more effects in Vietnam than the Phillippines imo.Allanjeffs 21:02, November 3, 2013 (UTC) ::Well, the Philippines should still accordingly plan for this system. As for this depression itself, the JMA has its intensity at 25 knots (30 mph, 45 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds)/1008 mbar (hPa; 29.77 inHg) and the JTWC has its intensity at 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h) (1-minute sustained winds) gusting to 40 knots (45 mph). The JTWC predicts a break in our typhoon streak, taking the depression to 60 knots (70 mph) (1-minute sustained winds) with gusts of 75 knots (85 mph). AndrewTalk To Me 22:03, November 3, 2013 (UTC) :::This isn't on the JMA for some reason. Anyway, PAGASA has named 30W Wilma. The latest JTWC update weakens 30W (Wilma) to 25 kts (1-min) and has it just inland Mindanao. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 03:08, November 4, 2013 (UTC) ::::Tropical Depression 30W will likely remain weak and break our typhoon streak. Both the JMA and the JTWC have the depression at 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h) (1 and 10-minute sustained winds), with a pressure estimate of 1004 mbar (hPa; 29.65 inHg) per the JMA. Gusts are estimated to be at 40 knots (45 mph) per the JTWC. The JMA's tentative forecast brings the depression up to 35 knots (40 mph) (10-minute sustained winds)/1000 mbar (hPa), whereas the JTWC is slightly more intense on the system. They: A.) forecast another Philippine landfall near Puerto Princesa, B.) take the depression to 60 knots (70 mph) (1-minute sustained winds)/75 knot (85 mph) gusts, C.) predict a Vietnam landfall north of Ho Chi Minh City, D.) emerge it into the Gulf of Thailand, E.) forecast a third landfall over extreme southwestern Thailand, and F.) bring it into the Bay of Benegal with 25 knot (30 mph) winds (1-minute sustained winds)/35 knot (40 mph) gusts. If Tropical Depression 30W can do all of that, I will be very surprised. AndrewTalk To Me 22:19, November 4, 2013 (UTC) :::::Yeah, the forecast track is very weird. I'll be extremely surprised if this depression could do all that. Anyway, I think we will see Podul from this, although it will probably be a weakling and break the crazy typhoon streak. —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 03:11, November 5, 2013 (UTC) :::::This depression might not get as strong as before. The JMA has raised the system's pressure to 1006 mbar (hPa), and the JTWC has lowered their peak forecast to 55 knots (65 mph) (1-minute sustained winds) gusting to 70 knots (80 mph). Haiyan might significantly overshadow whatever Tropical Depression 30W does. AndrewTalk To Me 03:12, November 5, 2013 (UTC) :::::::This storm actually does have a chance of making it into the Bay of Bengal after making landfall in Southern Vietnam, but it'll have to hold itself intact (which won't hapen if it makes landfall as far north as they're expecting). Ryan1000 08:29, November 5, 2013 (UTC) ::::::::Well, Tropical Depression 30W has not gotten any stronger, and it might not get named at the rate its going. Even the JTWC kills it over southern Vietnam. AndrewTalk To Me 01:10, November 6, 2013 (UTC) Remnants of Tropical Depression 30W And it dissipated. It did not even make it to the Vietnam. AndrewTalk To Me 01:46, November 7, 2013 (UTC) :JTWC briefly had this at minimal TS strength for a single advisory a while ago, so this may or may not have broken the JTWC major typhoon streak. Depends on whether or not you count storms that were never named by the JMA. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 02:18, November 7, 2013 (UTC) 31W.HAIYAN 99W.INVEST Our unlucky 13th typhoon could form from this invest. The JTWC gives this system a low chance of becoming tropical in the next 24 hours, but there is a big chance another well-organized tropical cyclone could come from this. AndrewTalk To Me 11:52, November 2, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Depression 31W Yes Andrew, this one could be a scary storm for the Philipines in the future. The latest JTWC forecast on this one takes it screaming towards the islands as a 140 mph typhoon by Friday this week. I have the feeling Typhoon Podul could be very reminicent of Durian of 2006, hopefully everyone gets out before this one hits. Ryan1000 13:00, November 3, 2013 (UTC) This one is suppose to be a cat 4 or 5 when it hits the Philippines hopes it doesn`t reach that strength or it could be a disaster like Bopha.Allanjeffs 19:01, November 3, 2013 (UTC) : I think a better comparison to this storm would be Durian in 2006, which had the same general forecast path at this time in it's life. Durian wasn't as bad as Bopha, but 155 mph winds, hundreds of deaths, and billions of dollars in damage isn't anything to laugh at. I have a feeling this storm (Podul, assuming 30W gets named first, if not Haiyan), could be almost an exact repeat of Durian in track and intensity, though hopefully causing less death and destruction. Ryan1000 19:45, November 3, 2013 (UTC) :: This storm is looking scary in the long run. The Philippines could be attacked by future Podul (or maybe Haiyan?) by Friday as a huge typhoon, and we could even see a re-Bopha from this. —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 20:06, November 3, 2013 (UTC) :::Looking at the JTWC forecast track, this depression is poised to cause significant impact in the Philippines and likely might even rival Utor's effects. Both the JMA and JTWC have this depression's winds at 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h) (1 and 10-minute sustained) and the pressure is estimated to be at 1004 mbar (hPa; 29.65 inHg). I do not know what this depression will do, but if we get another Bopha or Durian, it could get extremely nasty out there. AndrewTalk To Me 22:08, November 3, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Storm Haiyan Now a 35-kt (10-min and 1-min) TS per both the JMA and JTWC, with a pressure of 1002 mbar per the JMA. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 03:10, November 4, 2013 (UTC) : Looks like this one stole what would've been TD 30's name. Either way, the Philipines better watch out. Ryan1000 03:20, November 4, 2013 (UTC) ::: Now a typhoon by the JTWC. I have a bad feeling about this...rapid intensification is taking hold as we speak. Ryan1000 15:08, November 4, 2013 (UTC) ::::Haiyan is starting to rapidly deepen. It is now at 45 knots (50 mph, 85 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds)/992 mbar (hPa; 29.29 inHg) per the JMA and at 55 knots (65 mph, 100 km/h) (1-minute sustained winds)/70 knot (80 mph) gusts per the JTWC. Ryan, Haiyan is still a tropical storm per the JTWC, but its gusts are of typhoon intensity. Things are looking real nasty in the next few days. The JMA crashes Haiyan over the Philippines with winds of 75 knots (85 mph) (10-minute sustained) and a pressure of 955 mbar (hPa), while the JTWC shows a dangerous 130 knot (150 mph) (1-minute sustained winds) super typhoon with gusts of 160 knots (185 mph). The Philippines need to get ready for this monster right now! AndrewTalk To Me 22:31, November 4, 2013 (UTC) Severe Tropical Storm Haiyan Haiyan is taking off fast! The JMA has bumped the storm up to 50 knots (60 mph, 95 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds)/990 mbar (hPa; 29.23 inHg), while the JTWC has declared our sixteenth typhoon of the year by their standards (winds of 65 knots (75 mph, 120 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds) gusting to 80 knots (90 mph)). The JMA now smashes Haiyan into the Philippines as an 80 knot (90 mph) (10-minute sustained winds), 945 mbar (hPa) typhoon, while the JTWC still foresees a 130 knot (150 mph) super typhoon over the Philippines in ~72 hours with gusts of 160 knots (185 mph). Haiyan is really becoming reminiscent of Typhoon Durian of 2006. If this storm pulls a Chebi (2006)-type intensification, that would be horrendous. Let's hope for the best for the sake of all the Philippine citizens. AndrewTalk To Me 03:09, November 5, 2013 (UTC) : Holy shit! This storm is really starting to take off! I feel really ''bad for the Philippines, as once it strikes there, it could cause '''LOADS '''of devastation. Here comes a re-Durian or re-Bopha! The Philippines need to prepare '''now, as it could become very destructive. I think we should pray for them... —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 03:15, November 5, 2013 (UTC) ::Andrew, Bopha was a typhoon briefly per the JTWC's operational best track, but it got downgraded to a TS shortly afterwards. However, it'll be a typhoon by both the JMA and JTWC very soon. A recap fact from October in the Western Pacific this year was there were 7 typhoons in October this year, beating the former record of 6 in 1989. God help the folks in the Philippines, this'll get very bad in the coming days...Ryan1000'' 08:22, November 5, 2013 (UTC) :::Haiyan is almost there. It is now at 60 knots (70 mph, 110 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds)/980 mbar (hPa; 28.94 inHg) per the JMA, while the JTWC intensity remains the same since my previous post. Although the JMA still forecasts the same landfall strength as before, the JTWC has downgraded their forecast to 125 knots (145 mph)/145 knot (165 mph) gusts. This may mean Haiyan could be weaker than it was previously forecast to be, unless it bombs out like Chebi and Xangsane in 2006 did. In reply to Ryan's post, I am surprised the typhoon record for October was broken, and it shows a sharp contrast to the five typhoons observed during the entire January-September period (Soulik, Utor, Man-yi, Usagi, and Wutip)! AndrewTalk To Me 12:26, November 5, 2013 (UTC) :::::Goes to show early-season activity has nothing to do with the peak, which, in this basin's case, is October. Forecast to run through the islands as a 150 mph storm. ''Ryan1000'' 17:48, November 5, 2013 (UTC) Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda) '''BAM! Haiyan has exploded! Per the JMA, the system is now an 80 knot (90 mph, 150 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds), 955 mbar (hPa; 28.20 inHg) monster typhoon! For the first time since 2001, we got a streak of eight "official" typhoons! And per the JTWC, Haiyan is at 105 knots (120 mph) (1-minute sustained winds)/130 knot (150 mph) gusts, making it our seventh straight "major" typhoon and the tenth of the season! The JMA shows an insanely violent typhoon bearing down on the Philippines, with an intensity of 105 knots (120 mph) (10-minute sustained winds)/920 mbar (hPa). And the JTWC forecasts a 140 knot (160 mph) super typhoon (1-minute sustained winds) with gusts of 170 knots (195 mph)!!! The Philippines need to get prepared right now! Haiyan is becoming a monster as we speak! AndrewTalk To Me 01:08, November 6, 2013 (UTC) : Super typhoon already.Isaac829 02:25, November 6, 2013 (UTC) ::: I think we're looking at a potentially landfalling category 5. God help them...Ryan1000 05:25, November 6, 2013 (UTC) ::::: And now it's a 160 mph category 5 super typhoon. Forecast to get to 165 mph before running right into the Philipines as a 155 mph storm tomorrow evening or Friday morning. This could get really ugly...Ryan1000 15:05, November 6, 2013 (UTC) PAGASA has now named this Yolanda. Ryan1000 18:41, November 6, 2013 (UTC) ::::::Now at 150 kts (1-min) per the JTWC and 115 kts (10-min)/905 mbar per the JMA. The JMA forecast calls for the strongest tropical cyclone worldwide since Megi '10, with 125-kt (10-min) winds and a pressure of 895 mbar. This is unreal. Think Bopha, except even stronger and somewhat farther north. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 20:04, November 6, 2013 (UTC) ::::::::The peak gusts from JMA are 175 knots (200 mph), and 895 is terrifying for a storm this immense. The JMA's track forecast takes it right through the heart of the islands, with several thousand people in it's path. Bopha hit a more populated and less prepared area than this storm, so it might not be as bad as Bopha was, but this could easily cause as much destruction (although hopefully less deaths) as Durian back in 2006. Ryan1000 20:32, November 6, 2013 (UTC) :::::::::I never expected this at all from Haiyan. We now have our fifth Category 5 storm of 2013 worldwide, and Haiyan shares the throne with Lekima as the season's strongest storm. Fortunately, the JTWC does not expect any more intensification, but Haiyan is clearly posing a very serious threat for the Philippines. Palau has already gotten a beating from this monster typhoon. For comparison, Haiyan's ten-minute sustained winds are tied with Lekima for the highest in the WPAC since Megi. Combined with Kiko's upgrade to a hurricane in the EPAC, Haiyan is clearly defing 2013's logic in a negative way. AndrewTalk To Me 01:55, November 7, 2013 (UTC) ::::::::::The JMA has reeled back their earlier prediction of a sub-900 mbar storm, but their forecast still takes Haiyan right to the brink at 120 kts (10-min) and 900 mbar. Both the JMA and the JTWC keep Haiyan's present intensity steady, so it might have already peaked. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 02:21, November 7, 2013 (UTC) ::::::::::And Andrew, 2013 seems to have changed its logic for the WPAC. 2013's WPAC logic now seems to call for typhoon after powerful-ass typhoon. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 02:24, November 7, 2013 (UTC) ::::::::::The models are forecasting another typhoon after this one,looks like the Philippines will not catch a break will pray for them.Btw this storm looks stunning can`t decide which one is more beautiful this one or Phaillin.Allanjeffs 04:04, November 7, 2013 (UTC) Both Phailin and this storm look beautiful, but at least with Phailin it didn't cause that much damage or deaths in India due to the evacuation orders before it. The Philipines almost never have a typhoon season with a happy ending, I have a feeling this will be the unlucky one to hit the islands this year. Ryan1000 11:56, November 7, 2013 (UTC) : Evacuations (pre-emptive and forced) has been implemented here in the Philippines since yesterday. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:40, November 7, 2013 (UTC) ::Anonymous 2.0, last time I checked, it was generally considered impolite to edit another user's comments without their permission. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 12:56, November 7, 2013 (UTC) Now up to 165 kt and obviously a very serious threat to the Philippines now. Kiewii! 16:48, November 7, 2013 (UTC) :Up further to 170 kt... this HOPEFULLY should be its peak intensity. Kiewii! 20:05, November 7, 2013 (UTC) ::This storm is a total boss. 170kts is the world record for reliable intensity. Only 895mb according to JMA, should be much lower. It's been at T8.0 for nearly 18 hours now. I though Phailin was the storm of 2013....looks like I was wrong. Yqt1001 (talk) 20:47, November 7, 2013 (UTC) : I just came from school and see that Haiyan is the most beautiful typhoon I have ever seen.The eyewall is total perfection.I am amazed and that it broke the devorak scale wow.I am praying for the Phillippines I hope they are prepare.IMO is the strongest cyclone we have ever observe,even stronger than Tip.Monica reach T 8.0 right? bus she wasn`t as espectacular as Haiyan.Allanjeffs 20:46, November 7, 2013 (UTC) How incredible. Yes, the JTWC did estimate the winds of Haiyan peaked at 195 mph, making it (by windspeed) the strongest tropical cyclone on record, stronger even than Tip, Allen, and Camille. Tom Skilling from WGN Chicago just said there has been a 858 mbar pressure from Haiyan estimated by Sattelite Imagery. If that is confirmed, Haiyan will smash Tip's record in 1979 as the strongest tropical cyclone in recorded history. While it's awe-inspiring to see such an incredible storm like this, Haiyan could be a catastrophic storm for the Philippine city of Tacloban, and Matarinao Bay will see at least 15-17 feet of storm surge. This could be a catastrophic storm for the islands, hopefully it's not as severe as Bopha was last year. Ryan1000 21:37, November 7, 2013 (UTC) ::Pardon my French, but holy shit... I thought Haiyan was done strengthening when it evened out at 905 mbar. I did not expect resumed strengthening, especially not to a world-record 170 kts (1-min) per the JTWC. I'd be thrilled if a storm of Haiyan's breathtaking intensity was roaming the open water, but no, Haiyan HAS to plow into the Philippines at or near peak strength. I was horrified when I saw the updates from the JMA and JTWC. First 125-kt (10-min) storm since Megi, and first sub-900 mbar cyclone worldwide since Megi as well. A catastrophe is unfolding as we speak. I honestly think that the effects from Haiyan will exceed or perhaps even dwarf those of Bopha. I'm usually not religious enough to word it like this, but God help them... --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 22:57, November 7, 2013 (UTC) ::FWIW, my mom commented that the name Haiyan sounds like "high-end," which it certainly is. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 23:02, November 7, 2013 (UTC) ::::It did Dylan, according to Dr Master's latest blog post (just a few minutes ago), Haiyan crashed into the islands with 195 mph winds, making it the strongest landfalling tropical cyclone in recorded history. The city of Guiuan recorded winds of category 2 strength before contact with the city was shut down. This storm could leave unimaginable devastation in it's wake. Hopefully everyone is out of harm's way. Ryan1000 23:05, November 7, 2013 (UTC) Retirements at a glance There are enough storms. *Other names - 10% - Nothing seems to be worth retiring this year. *Usagi - 20% - Didn't do too much. *Haiyan - ? Isaac829 21:02, November 7, 2013 (UTC) I am going to wait on this section until Soulik dissipates. AndrewTalk To Me 12:50, July 9, 2013 (UTC) : Yeah, when Soulik hits China, I think we'll have a seroius retirement canidate. But nothing prior to Soulik stands much of a chance for retirement. Ryan1000 16:03, July 9, 2013 (UTC) Now that Soulik's gone, I will post my predictions: JMA: #Sonamu - 1% - Two deaths is simply not enough for retirement, and Sonamu barely left any damage at all. #Shanshan - 1% - Although four people died and damages amount to $255,000 (2013 USD), if 2008's Fengshen was not retired, Shanshan definitely will not. #Yagi - 0.1% - It tapped Japan, but I just do not see Yagi going because of the lack of damage and deaths. #Leepi - 0.5% - This storm affected a good number of regions, but there are no damage or death reports, so it is a no for Leepi. #Bebinca - 2% - Despite affecting many areas of China, they have seen so much worse than Bebinca, as the storm did not kill anyone and caused only $5.3 million (2013 USD) in damage. #Rumbia - 5% - Fifty-five deaths, along with $1.25 million (2013 USD) in damage, make Bebinca an unlikely retirement candidate.Rumbia only did $1.25 million in damage, the other $4.52 billion came from something else.--Isaac829 19:13, July 14, 2013 (UTC) #Soulik - 10% - This could have been an unwritten nightmare for Shanghai, but Soulik collapsed so fast it did not happen. Regardless, the damage total of $43 million (2013 USD) is not looking good. #Cimaron - 5% - Some significant flooding and impact occurred in China and damages total to $253 million (2013 USD), but it likely will not be enough for retirement, considering only one fatality was reported. #Jebi - 0.5% - No damages or deaths have been reported from the system, and it was not as bad as it could have been. #Mangkhut - 0.1% - It has caused two fatalities, but I doubt it was that bad at all for Vietnam. #Utor - 55% - Utor could have been so much worse than it really was. Looking at a super typhoon explode so close to the Philippines was just unreal. The Philippines have quite the road to recovery and southern China was hit pretty good as well. However, despite the ugly $2.3 million (2013 USD) in damage, the 25 deaths lowers my percentage significantly. If Utor had caused Bopha or Washi-like fatality totals, we could be looking at a typhoon with an 95% chance of retirement. #Trami - 3% - Trami did cause 18 fatalities and property losses of $1.83 million (2013 USD). It also has caused serious flooding in China and the Philippines. Fortunately, most of those regions were in a drought, so there was some benefit from the storm. #Kong-rey - 1% - Despite the two deaths reported from Kong-rey, I doubt it will be remembered. #Yutu - 0% - Yutu was nothing more than a Western Pacific Gaston or Jose. #Toraji - 0.5% - Toraji was not significantly bad for Japan or Taiwan. #Man-yi - 0.5% - Only one fatality was reported from Man-yi, and that does not make it a retirement nominee at all. #Usagi - 40% - Hong Kong came so close to getting nailed here. Luckily, Usagi collapsed before it could do so. However, the 50 deaths and $1.15 billion (2013 USD) in damage will make it a major retiree candidate. #Pabuk - 0% - Pabuk tried...and failed. #Wutip - 20% - Wutip caused lots of hype in Vietnam. Sixty-five fatalities and $233 million (2013 USD) in damage do give a small shot of leaving. #Sepat - 0.01% - Sepat's impacts to Japan should not be enough at all to retire it. #Fitow - 4% - Fitow's $372 million (2013 USD) in damage and 11 fatalities make it along the lines of Soulik, which is good, considering the flooding in China. #Danas - 10% - Okinawa may have gotten unlucky here. 2007's Man-yi was their last brutal beating, and Danas was not as strong as Man-yi. Still, fifteen fatalities gives it a chance. #Nari - 8% - The Philippines, Vietnam, and Loas did get pounded a little. $71.4 million in damages (2013 USD) and 38 fatalities, along with some flooding, give it that small chance. #Wipha - 5% - The 13 fatalities in Japan are not looking good... #Francisco - 0.1% - Francisco did affect several landmasses and became a Category 5, but I do not think it will be retired. #Lekima - 0% - Lekima overtopped Usagi as the season's strongest storm, but it did not affect any landmasses, so no retirement is in store. #Krosa - 1% - Four fatalities and $4.78 million (2013 USD) in damage will not be enough for retirement, although agricultural damage in the Philippines was rather significant. #Haiyan - TBA - Still Active PAGASA: #Auring - 0.1% - No. #Bising - 0% - No way. #Crising - 2% - Not really. #Dante - 0% - No way. #Emong - 0.05% - No. #Fabian - 0% - No way. #Gorio - 20% - Maybe, but I doubt it. #Huaning - 0% - No. #Isang - 0.01% - No. #Jolina - 0.05% - No. #Kiko - 0.05% - No. #Labuyo - 50% - Maybe, but I will not guarantee it. #Maring - 0.5% - No. #Nando - 0.01% - No. #Odette - 0.5% - Not really. #Paolo - 0.01% - No. #Quedan - 0% - No way. #Ramil - 0% - No way. #Santi - 3% - Not really. #Tino - 0% - No way. #Urduja - 0% - No way. #Vinta - 2% - Not really. #Wilma - 0.5% - No. #Yolanda - TBA - Still Active AndrewTalk To Me 14:57, July 14, 2013 (UTC) Might as well make mine: JMA names: *Sonamu - <1% - Not happening. *Shanshan - 2% - Not a fishspinner, but this was no Bopha. *Yagi - ~0% - Hardly any damage in Japan. *Leepi - 0% - More widespread than Yagi, but most of the impacts were negligible. *Bebinca - 5% - Some damage to China, but they've seen much worse than this. *Rumbia - 30% - I would normally go higher for a storm that killed over 50 people, but those numbers aren't high enough in that area. *Soulik - >30% - 300 million in damage as of now, Soulik could've been much, much worse. *Cimaron - <10% - China has seen worse. *Jebi - 8% - Meh. *Mangkhut - 10% - Not too bad. *Utor - 65% - Caused lots of damage over parts of Luzon, China got off better though. *Trami - 15% - It contributed to an already severe flood problem in China, hopefully it doesn't get much worse. *Kong-Rey - 15% - Some flooding, but nothing significant. *Yutu - 0% - Do it again! I wasn't looking. *Toraji - 5% - Some flooding in Japan, but likely not retirement-worthy. *Man-Yi - 3% - Damage in Japan wasn't too severe. *Usagi - 15% - Some damage and deaths, but like Utor, Hong Kong escaped the worst of the storm's fury. *Pabuk - 0% - Didn't affect land. *Wutip - 25% - Haven't seen impacts yet, but it wasn't negligible, I can tell you that. *Sepat - 0% - Fish. *Fitow - 25% - Some damage and deaths, but China has seen worse. *Danas - 0% - Gave Japan and the Koreas a scare but they came out unscathed. *Nari - 20% - Some damage and deaths, but probably not retirement-worthy. *Wipha - 15% - Zipped right by Japan as a typhoon, but didn't do as much as it could've done. *Francisco - 0% - Looks like this wasn't even close to as bad as it could've been. *Lekima - 0% - Missed land, like Francisco. *Krosa - 10% - 689,000 in damage and 4 deaths isn't negligible, but probably not enough either. *Haiyan - ?? - Too soon to tell. PAGASA names: *Auring - 1% - Not enough. *Bising - 0% - Seriously? *Crising - 4% - Nah. *Dante - 0% - Did I miss something? *Emong - 1% - Maybe...nah, not happening. *Fabian - 0% - What? *Gorio - 15% - Nothing compared to past storms they've seen. *Huaning - 0% - No damage to the Philipines. *Isang - 0% - Didn't touch the Philpines. *Jolina - 6% - Nothing severe to the islands. *Kiko - <5% - Not much to the Philipines. *Labuyo - 100% - Has been retired. *Maring - 2% - Mostly missed the islands. *Nando - ~0% - No real impacts to the islands. *Odette - <5% - Largely missed Luzon. *Paolo - 0% - Missed the islands. *Quendan - 0% - Well away from the Philipines. *Ramil - 0% - Again, missed the islands. *Santi - 25% - Killed 13 people, but that's not even a shadow of what they've seen before (Bopha anyone?) *Tino - 0% - Not even close. *Urduja - 0% - Not by a long shot. *Vinta - 5% - Not too severe for Luzon. *Wilma - 10% - Probably wasn't too severe for the islands. *Yolanda - ?? - This could get really nasty... Those are mine. Ryan1000 21:54, July 14, 2013 (UTC) Here's my predictions: JMA names *Sonamu - 1% - 2 deaths are not enough. *Shanshan - 1% - This affected the Philippines, but the damage and deaths are not enough for retirement. *Yagi - 0% - Failure. *Leepi - 0% - No way. *Bebinca - 5% - China has seen much, much worse. *Rumbia - 25% - There's a chance, but I doubt it. *Soulik - 35% - Caused lots of damage in Taiwan and China, but this could have been much worse. *Cimaron - 10% - I don't think so. *Jebi - 0.5% - Nope. *Mangkhut - 1% - Doubt it. *Utor - 55% - Caused lots of destruction in the Philippines and China. I think we have the first serious retirement candidate! *Trami - 10% - It did cause some damage and deaths, but I don't think it is going. *Kong-rey - 2% - Probably not. *Yutu - 0% - Nothing. *Toraji - 1% - Affected Japan, but it will not be retired. *Man-yi - 2% - Not much damage in Japan. *Usagi - 20% - Hong Kong almost got devastated here. Well, at least its center missed the area and it weakened, so it wasn't nearly as bad as I expected. But it still caused plenty of damage and deaths. *Pabuk - 0% - Didn't affect land. *Wutip - 25% - Caused some destruction in Vietnam, but I doubt retirement. *Sepat - 0% - Another fail. *Fitow - 15% - Caused some damage and deaths in China, but it will most likely not be retired. *Danas - 5% - Wasn't too bad. *Nari - 20% - Caused quite a bit of damage and deaths in the Philippines and Vietnam, but retirement? Probably not. *Wipha - 10% - This storm zipped right by Japan, and it caused some deaths and damage. But I think it will stay. *Francisco - 1% - Became a C5, but didn't significantly affect land. So, no retirement here. *Lekima - 0.1% - It became the strongest of 2013 and never affected land. That's the type of storm that I like to see! While Lekima certainly isn't going to be retired because it didn't affect land, the "0.1%" is for its awesomeness. *Krosa - 5% - Caused some damage to the Philippines, , but no retirement here. *Haiyan - ? - Still active, but looking very scary for the Philippines. It could strike as a super typhoon, and once it's all said and done, we could be looking at a storm with a 70% to 99% chance of retirement. PAGASA names *Auring - 0.5% - Doubt it. *Bising - 0% - Epic fail. *Crising - 2% - Nah. *Dante - 0% - Hell no. *Emong - 0.1% - No. *Fabian - 0% - Turned the wrong way. *Gorio - 20% - The Philippines have seen MUCH worse. *Huaning - 0% - Nope. *Isang - 0.1% - Not happening. *Jolina - 5% - Caused some flooding in the Philippines, but it won't be retired. *Kiko - 2% - Didn't do much to the Philippines. *Labuyo - Retired. *Maring - 0.5% - It mostly missed the Philippines. *Nando - 0% - No Philippine impacts. *Odette - 0.5% - Not really. *Paolo - 0% - Missed the Philippines. *Quedan - 0% - See Paolo. *Ramil - 0% - Nope. *Santi - 10% - 13 deaths make it an unlikely retirement candidate, since the Philippines has seen much worse. *Tino - 0% - No. *Urduja - 0% - Well away from the Philippines. *Vinta - 5% - Not really. *Wilma - ? - Still active. [[User:Steven09876 |'''Steven09876]] ''T'' | ' 15:59, July 22, 2013 (UTC) Labuyo has been retired due to its damage total. AndrewTalk To Me 14:04, August 20, 2013 (UTC) So we know that if a storm makes more than1 billion in damage and kill more than 300 lives is going to be retire.Now we know which ones are going out of the list.Allanjeffs 15:20, August 20, 2013 (UTC) : Not surprised it was retired, but I'm not sure if Utor itself will be retired. Sometimes a storms PAGASA name is retired but the JMA name stays, like Frank (Fengshen) in 2008, or many of the tropical storms in 2011 (except for Washi, which was retired by both PAGASA and JMA). 'Ryan1000' 15:36, August 23, 2013 (UTC) ::: Guys, I think you underestimated Santi/Nari. Despite its low death toll count, it still managed to cause damages worth PHP 3 billion, making it a candidate for retirement. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:37, November 7, 2013 (UTC) ::::: Doesn't mean they'd be retired though, the Philipines almost never escape a season without seeing a powerful typhoon or two. Just because it's PAGASA name went doesn't mean it's JMA name will too. 'Ryan1000''' 21:43, November 7, 2013 (UTC)